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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still